Wednesday 5 August

Aug 04, 2026

∙ Paid

Good Morning,

The S&P closed higher by 136 points on Tuesday, closing above all moving averages, all VWAPs and in positive gamma. The S&P has rallied 450 points in four sessions so I trimmed quite a few calls and some LT positions. If it pulls back or not now depends on the Nasdaq100 which we delve into below. It’s a huge improvement but technically it’s not quite there yet. I am also not inclined to be long above the monthly 1SD upper, the risk reward is poor here - see members area for the levels.

Note - the levels are calculated on a closing basis so we can move above the monthly upper intra-month and still close under. Time will tell. if we do get a sizeable pull back (100-150 pts) in the short term it remains a dip buying opportunity this side of September.

QQQ O’Neil Status

Despite today's big rally, $QQQ still triggered neither an FTD nor a Power Trend under strict O'Neil rules, the 21 EMA remains below the 50 MA and distribution days sit in the danger zone at 9/4. But the Weekly Trend is still BULL, so the recent selling is a pullback within an intact weekly uptrend and not a confirmed top. A follow through day must trigger by Friday though or it’s likely a dead cat bounce. QQQ did close above all the major VWAPs and above all moving averages - also bullish.

If you do want access to the O’Neil indicator please let me know - it’s an extra cost but we have a special yearly offer. You don’t need to be a paid subscriber for access.