Monday 10 August
The S&P closed higher by 47 points on Friday, closing at a new daily and weekly all-time high, above all moving averages, all VWAPs and in positive gamma. QQQ closed above all moving averages and above all VWAPs. SMH (for the first time since the July low) closed above all VWAPS but is still below its 50 day moving average but above all the other moving averages.
We have a fairly low range week implied by the options market this week, the new weekly SPX/QQQ levels are in the members zone. The weekly SD levels come from the options market, the price of the at the money weekly straddle tells you the range traders are collectively betting price stays within by Friday, with 1SD marking the 68% zone and 2SD the 95% zone. There are some levels below Friday’s close I’m very interested in - see SPX VWAPs for details.
Inflation data is released on Wednesday - the last print in June was far lower than expected due to the sharp drop in oil prices in May. Oil then rose again by 30% at the peak in July so Wednesday’s print may be higher than estimated.
Earnings This Week
QQQ/SPX - O’Neil Indicator
QQQ has snapped back hard at +9.5% off the Aug low in 8 sessions, now back above the 21 EMA and 50 MA. Market BULL, Weekly Trend BULL. Power Trend still OFF and distribution days at 8/4, so the O'Neil green light isn't lit yet but price has done the heavy lifting. Watch for Power Trend to flip ON to confirm the turn.
SPX
Power Trend ON, above rising 21 EMA (7,551) and 50 MA (7,466), pushing new highs. Leading and in a confirmed uptrend while QQQ still repairs.
VXV/VIX Ratio: Closing Level 1.23: what it means:
