Friday 11 July

Good Morning,

The S&P closed up 17 points yesterday but overnight the President announced a blanket 35% tariff on Canada. The S&P is currently down 40 points overnight. An EU tariff letter will be forthcoming today according to the White House.

FOMO (fear of missing out) has reached fever pitch and crypto is breaking out and yet we have overbought conditions with RSI readings reaching extremes. 6300 remains the barrier.

One trend we have seen is a post Opex week (next week) fade. This has occurred every month except for January. If the market is up through Opex then a fade the following week is likely and vice versa so buy weakness or sell strength post Opex.

For the time being the strategy is to continue to do what we are doing with some long exposure (using plenty of time) and the day trading, a pullback will almost certainly come in Q3, August/September are the likely candidates. Today is weekly options expiry day and calls are stacked up near 6300, this may be as much to do with the overnight weakness as anything else.