I will open a new signal chat for alerts and will put any alerts in the live daily chat also.

Examples below:

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The S&P closed lower by 13 points yesterday, reversing almost exactly at the daily upper level for today. It closed above all key moving averages, above all key VWAPs and in positive gamma. The Dow and NYSE closed at new all time highs.

The Nasdaq100 was weaker today but did close above all its moving averages and above all key VWAPs. It did not restart the Power Trend or trigger an FTD but there’s still time for that. If we do go lower the next levels of interest are the weekly VWAPs on SPX, QQQ & SMH for next support - (see members zone).

Summary - things have improved markedly recently but we need to wait and see what the next move is. Nothing too bearish as it stands but overbought signals are starting to materialise - see members zone, and some profit taking was not unexpected after the velocity of the recent rally.

From today onwards I will simply send the link by email to the daily posts instead of the full email wth graphics as they are too long for Substack’s email limits - nothing will change just click on the link to the daily post in the morning email.

MEMBERS ZONE

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Most indicators try to call the top. This one does the opposite. Major tops don’t appear out of nowhere - market breadth deteriorates first, usually months in advance. The Clock tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Advance Decline line to measure that. When breadth is confirming price at new highs, the market’s foundation is healthy and a major top simply can’t become active yet.

A top can't form in this window because a major top is always preceded by breadth breaking down first and as long as the Advance-Decline line is still confirming price at new highs, that breakdown hasn't even begun, so the earliest a top could develop is the months it historically takes for that divergence to play out.

It traces back through decades of work by Richard Russell ‘s popularised A-D divergence at tops, Ned Davis’ research who built much of the institutional breadth-divergence framework, and it's standard CANSLIM/O'Neil and Lowry Research feature too.

Crucially, this is not a top-timing signal and never a buy or sell trigger. When breadth confirms, the Clock reads “Top Window Closed” and points to the earliest a top could realistically form which right now is about four months out. When breadth finally diverges, it flips to “Top Window Open” and the clock starts, telling you to watch more closely, not to sell. It’s a green light that says the road ahead is clear for now. I’ll update the Clock weekly, alongside the Breadth indicator and the Market Thermometer.

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The S&P closed higher by 136 points on Tuesday, closing above all moving averages, all VWAPs and in positive gamma. The S&P has rallied 450 points in four sessions so I trimmed quite a few calls and some LT positions. If it pulls back or not now depends on the Nasdaq100 which we delve into below. It’s a huge improvement but technically it’s not quite there yet. I am also not inclined to be long above the monthly 1SD upper, the risk reward is poor here - see members area for the levels.

Note - the levels are calculated on a closing basis so we can move above the monthly upper intra-month and still close under. Time will tell. if we do get a sizeable pull back (100-150 pts) in the short term it remains a dip buying opportunity this side of September.

QQQ O’Neil Status

Despite today's big rally, $QQQ still triggered neither an FTD nor a Power Trend under strict O'Neil rules, the 21 EMA remains below the 50 MA and distribution days sit in the danger zone at 9/4. But the Weekly Trend is still BULL, so the recent selling is a pullback within an intact weekly uptrend and not a confirmed top. A follow through day must trigger by Friday though or it’s likely a dead cat bounce. QQQ did close above all the major VWAPs and above all moving averages - also bullish.

If you do want access to the O’Neil indicator please let me know - it’s an extra cost but we have a special yearly offer. You don’t need to be a paid subscriber for access.

SMH O’Neil Status

LT Closed Trades Yesterday:

SMH LT +$1,266

S&P LT +$21,000

Total $22,266

Short Term Closed Trades Yesterday:

Half DRAM calls +$260

SMH Weekly 560 C +$1,000

SSO Calls +$582

TQQQ +$240

SPY Calls +$500

MAGS Calls -$150

Total $2,850

Grand Total $25,116

MEMBERS ZONE

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Sold the full SPX LT position of $100k for $121,094. Net $21,094.

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